Essay about Business Forecast - 1444 Words

Business Forecast This Paper examines and compares various forecasting techniques used for qualitative and quantitative business forecasting and their use in Firstlogic Inc., to forecast the demand under conditions of uncertainty. Time series and Delphi forecasting methods are considered for this research to evaluate their ability to make effective decisions regarding the future. Business Forecasting Business forecasting is the process of studying historical performance for the purpose of using the knowledge gained to project future business conditions so that decisions can be made today that will aid in the achievement of established goals. Forecasting plays a crucial role in todays uncertain global marketplace. Forecasting is†¦show more content†¦It is in these situations that modern methods of business forecasting can be especially useful. Modern forecasting methods are usually grouped into two main categories: qualitative methods, and quantitative methods. Qualitative analysis includes the intuitive and knowledge-based approach as discussed earlier. The decision maker reviews all of the information available, and then makes an estimated forecast. Quantitative techniques are used mostly when qualitative information is not available. In contrast, qualitative techniques are based on an analysis of data (Namvar, 2000, p.8). Delphi Forecasting Method Qualitative forecasting techniques are: executive committee, the Delphi method, and surveys of the sales force, surveys of customers, historical analogy, and market research. The objective of most Delphi applications is the reliable and creative exploration of ideas or the production of suitable information for decision-making. The Delphi Method is based on a structured process for collecting and distilling knowledge from a group of experts by means of a series of questionnaires interspersed with controlled opinion feedback (chase, 2003, P471). The Delphi method is a variation of the executive committee approach. But the interaction is indirect, iterative and structured. The basic premise of Delphi method is to identify a group of experts and each of them are given a set of questions or issues,Show MoreRelatedBusiness Forecast1469 Words   |  6 Pagesused for qualitative and quantitative business forecasting and their use in Firstlogic Inc., to forecast the demand under conditions of uncertainty. Time series and Delphi forecasting methods are considered for this research to evaluate their ability to make effective decisions regarding the future. Business Forecasting Business forecasting is the process of studying historical performance for the purpose of using the knowledge gained to project future business conditions so that decisions can beRead MoreL.L. Bean, Inc. Case Study Report1016 Words   |  5 Pages 6. At the item level, forecasts have to be issued and ultimately purchase commitments have to be made. Problem: the large number of errors (either over stock or under stock) at the item level is disturbing to top management. Estimated costs of lost sales and backorders is about $11 million dollars, and liquidation costs associated with having too much of the wrong inventory is an additional $10 million totaling $21 million or 4% of catalog sales. 7. The item forecast process involves a groupRead MoreForecasting and Demand Planning2752 Words   |  12 PagesTotal annual/monthly volume †¢ Projected product mix Operational †¢ Weekly/monthly SKUlevel demand †¢ Order size and frequency 3 Role of Forecasting in Supply Chain, †¢ Basis for Strategic Planning Decisions in SCM †¢ Decisions needing Forecast as Base †¢ Production - Scheduling -Inventory Control -- Aggregate Planning - Purchasing †¢ Marketing -Allocation of Sales-Force -- Promotion Activities -- New Product Launching †¢ Finance -Plant Equipment Investment -- Budgetary Planning Read MoreQualitative Forecasting1779 Words   |  8 Pageseducated opinions  of appropriate persons 1.  Delphi method:  forecast is developed by a  panel of experts  who anonymously answer a series of questions; responses are fed back to panel members who then may change their original responses a- very time consuming and expensive b- new groupware makes this process much more feasible 2.  Market research:  panels, questionnaires, test markets, surveys, etc. 3.  Product life-cycle analogy:  forecasts based on life-cycles of similar Read MoreYahoo! Inc. Overview of its business model, value proposition and projected financial forecast.1545 Words   |  7 Pagesï » ¿ Yahoo! Inc. Overview of the company’s business model, value proposition and projected financial forecast. Introduction Yahoo! Inc. is a global US Internet Corporation, founded in California in 1994, which provides a range of products and content, including email, media streaming and downloads. Surviving the dot.com crash in 2001, Yahoo concentrated on pursuing partnerships with telecoms and internet providers to compete with AOL, they acquired smallerRead MoreBarilla Case Study3439 Words   |  14 PagesMaastricht University School of Business and Economics International Executive Master of Finance and Control 20 April 2012 Course – Logistics Prof. Dr. Allard van Riel Pauline Henselmans Jetse van de Kamp Ze Zhu Thiago Barros de Oliveira Rene Lorrier Contents 1. Reasons for the increase in variability in demand in Barilla’s supply chain 3 1.1 Distributed inventories, local optimization 3 1.2 Lack of inventory information and sales forecast information 3 1.3 PromotionsRead MoreDemand Risk in Transport Infrastructure Projects1002 Words   |  5 Pagesrevenue generation is critical to the ultimate success of the project. Brocklebank, Burnett, Ras Walt(Brocklebank, Burnett, Ras Walt . 2001) describes the demand forecasts or revenue generation as â€Å"vital to the development of a business case†. Mackie, Nellthrop and Laird (Mackie, Nellthrop and Laird. 2005) note that â€Å"demand forecasts are fundamental to an economic appraisal† for rail transport infrastructure projects. 2.2 The Concept of Demand Risk Burger (Burger, P. 2006) noted that when aRead MoreCross-Functional Alignment in Supply Chain Planning13165 Words   |  53 Pagesprocesses is to facilitate master planning, demand planning, and the flow of information between them. Master planning is primarily concerned with the coordination of the supply side of the organization and seeks the most efficient way to fulfill demand forecasts over the medium term (Stadtler, 2005), facilitating finer levels of planning such as purchasing and materials requirements, 6 production, and distribution planning. Demand planning is concerned with the customer-facing side of the organizationRead MoreE Commerce : Commercial Transactions Conducted Electronically On The Internet1161 Words   |  5 PagesINTRODUCTION: E-commerce is known as commercial transactions conducted electronically on the Internet. Introduce GOGAL to online business in order to individual customer and to support visitors to become customers and to encourage loyalty for repeat purchase in their customer to develop maintain the GOGAL brand and need to identify their target market through types of advertising and their placement use of e-mail, CRM, social media etc. in visitors/ customers communication. Ecommerce definitionRead MoreThe Tremendous Growth Of E Commerce During The Last Century Could Baffle Some Economist1055 Words   |  5 Pagesmade a major improvement. In the first few years, we were seeing the growth of search engines and portals. This is when the Business to Consumer market began to increase. Over the last couple years, the Business to Business market has shown significant growth. To answer any predetermined questions, we will discuss important impacts of information asymmetry in business. Information Asymmetry can be described as one side of a transaction having more knowledge of the product than the other. This